The question of who will succeed Sadulayev is less political than technical. The question of whether or not Shamil Basayev will assume control of the separatist movement is also of secondary importance. Nor can it be assumed that the movement would become more radical under Basayev’s leadership. No one is stopping Basayev from adopting even more brutal tactics right now. Maskhadov and Sadulayev couldn’t stand in his way, and the heir apparent, warlord Doku Umarov, will fare no better. But the Russian authorities should be worried not so much about Basayev as the social conditions that make people like Basayev popular, for it is the unfavorable political and social situation in the North Caucasus that produces Basayev’s terrorist foot soldiers.
Last but not least, Sadulayev’s death has been presented as a victory for Chechen Prime Minister Ramzan Kadyrov, rather than for the Russian leadership and the security services. Kadyrov is now the sole master of the republic. His actions often violate Russian law and the logic of the so-called power vertical. No other regional leader is allowed such latitude. His inner circle includes many former fighters who ultimately realized that becoming a part of the Russian power structure was a whole lot better than taking part in guerrilla attacks.
